Sharp solo — research tool−$546
Flat-bet every signal yourself.
Backtest over 50 resolved signals: −$546 net. Sharp’s 71% win rate doesn’t compensate for the variance when wins are smaller than losses (avg win $30 vs avg loss $70).
Legacy Sharp signals are still available for market-intelligence users. Forecry Behaviors are the current universal agent-plugin launch path.Browse Behavior plugins →
Trade where the crowd is wrong.
A Bayesian ensemble against market consensus. We score independent probabilities for prediction markets, identify mispriced contracts, and overlay whale wallet flow — delivered as actionable signals.
Coming soonHow it works
⚡ HIGHCrude Oil hits $120 by end of Junemarket58¢→ model90¢+31¢● live•
⚡ HIGHTrump ends Iran operations by June 30market53¢→ model78¢+25¢● won•
⚡ MEDSEC approves Solana ETF before Q3market64¢→ model82¢+18¢● won•
⚡ HIGHFed cuts rates before September 2026market62¢→ model85¢+23¢● won•
⚡ MEDTrump replaces Powell as Fed Chairmarket58¢→ model78¢+20¢● won•
⚡ HIGHUS CPI prints below 2.8% in Februarymarket47¢→ model63¢+16¢● won•
⚡ MEDBTC closes above $120k by end of Q2market41¢→ model56¢+15¢● live•
⚡ HIGHETH/BTC ratio above 0.06 by Fridaymarket53¢→ model72¢+19¢● won•
⚡ HIGHCrude Oil hits $120 by end of Junemarket58¢→ model90¢+31¢● live•
⚡ HIGHTrump ends Iran operations by June 30market53¢→ model78¢+25¢● won•
⚡ MEDSEC approves Solana ETF before Q3market64¢→ model82¢+18¢● won•
⚡ HIGHFed cuts rates before September 2026market62¢→ model85¢+23¢● won•
⚡ MEDTrump replaces Powell as Fed Chairmarket58¢→ model78¢+20¢● won•
⚡ HIGHUS CPI prints below 2.8% in Februarymarket47¢→ model63¢+16¢● won•
⚡ MEDBTC closes above $120k by end of Q2market41¢→ model56¢+15¢● live•
⚡ HIGHETH/BTC ratio above 0.06 by Fridaymarket53¢→ model72¢+19¢● won•
The signal
Every signal includes the math.
Most prediction-market alpha bots ship you a ticker and a thumbs-up. We ship the full thesis — what the market thinks, what we think, why we disagree, and which whale wallets are already positioned.
Market price vs. our model
Independent Bayesian probability scoring — not anchored on the contract price.
Whale wallet correlation
We track whale + rising wallets and surface their position on the same market.
Position guidance
Suggested bankroll allocation based on confidence, edge, and liquidity depth.
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL — HIGHLIVE
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $120 by end of June?
Prediction YES|Confidence 90%
Market priceYES 58¢
Our modelYES 90¢
Edge+31¢
WTI is approaching $120 according to direct news flow, justifying a model-implied ~0.90 vs the market's 0.585. +31% edge; risks include thin daily volume and a 60-day window for geopolitical reversals.
24h vol $12.5KAll-time $487K
4 whales in this market — $840K whale capitalavg buy 56¢ · first whale 11h ago
Position 3–5% bankroll · min 80% confidence
Methodology
A 9-stage pipeline. Built for one question.
What is the true probability of this market — independent of what the price says?
01 / 09
Ingest the world
Multi-source news APIs, on-chain Polymarket activity, CLOB orderbook depth — continuously, in real time.
02–08 / 09
Score independently
News-to-market correlation, viability filters, liquidity gates, and a Bayesian probability estimate that never anchors on the contract price.
09 / 09
Whale-overlay & deliver
Cross-reference tracked whale wallets, assemble the signal, and deliver via REST API with zero delay.
377
Signals sent
Across 30 days of soft-launch.
287
Whale wallets tracked
81 rising · 206 confirmed whale.
$480M+
Combined whale PnL
Realized PnL across tracked wallets.
75min
Whale-tier refresh
Survivor-bias-free, REDEEM-event scored.
Track record published quarterly. We don't show win rate during soft launch — sample size matters more than vanity numbers.
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL — HIGHLIVE
Will the SEC approve a Solana ETF before Q3?
Prediction NO|Confidence 89%
Market priceNO 64¢
Our modelNO 82¢
Edge+18¢
Recent SEC commentary signals continued caution on alt-coin spot products. Market pricing 36% chance of approval — model puts true probability at 18%.
24h vol $847KAll-time $3.1M
Position 3–4% bankroll
Sample signals · refreshed daily
Read one. See if we're for real.
Every day we publish one full signal — thesis, model price, whale context, the lot — visible to anyone, no email required. Sharp delivers all signals in real-time. No delay, no filtering. Sharp gets all signals, real-time, with the API.
The product
Everything you need. One product.
Sharp bundles signals, automated execution, and copy trading into a single subscription. Rent it hosted, or own the code outright.
Sharp
Engine
Copy Trade
Whales
Account
v2.4.1 · LICENSED
Engine · running
Bankroll$14,000.00
Today's PnL+$1,140.55
Open positions7
Last signalSolana ETF · 4m ago
Apps · coming soon
One window for the full stack.
Sharp dashboard, Engine controls, Copy Trade wallets — all in one place. License-aware: every tab is visible so you can see what you're missing, and unlocked tabs activate the moment you upgrade.
Included with any paid tier. Run bots on your own machine or let Forecry host them — the interface works either way.
Whales
Smart money leaves a trail.
We track wallets across Polymarket, scored by realized profit, position count, and win rate. When a whale enters a market we're already watching, you'll know within minutes.
View whale leaderboard →Rank
Wallet
All-time PnL
Win rate
#1
0xA1…ec2 rising
$12.06M
81.8% 11 markets
#2
0x4c…b18 whale
$7.13M
95.1% 61 markets
#3
0xF9…0d3 whale
$4.95M
89.5% 57 markets
#4
0x21…aef whale
$4.84M
84.8% 105 markets
#5
0xB7…010 whale
$4.52M
85.5% 124 markets
Pricing
Fair price for an unfair edge.
Rent Sharp hosted on our servers, or buy the source code and run it yourself. Own it once — no monthly fees, ever.
FAQ
Honest answers.
Polymarket leaderboards show who's winning. We tell you what to bet on. Our model scores independent probabilities from news + on-chain data, then surfaces markets where the crowd's price is wrong. Whale wallets are an input — not the headline.
Soft launch. We've sent 377 signals across 30 days — small sample, directional skew under investigation. We'll publish a quarterly track-record report once the sample is large enough to be honest. Anyone telling you they have 'edge' after a month is selling something.
No. Forecry provides market intelligence only. We are not a broker, not registered as one, and Polymarket availability varies by jurisdiction. You are responsible for your own trades, taxes, and outcomes.
Sharp is real-time. Signals are delivered the moment the model scores a market — no delay, no queue. The sample feed on the homepage is refreshed daily and is for trust-building only.
An optional add-on (separate from Sharp) that auto-executes trades on Polymarket using your linked wallet, configurable bankroll, and minimum-confidence threshold. Available to Sharp subscribers (Rent or Own).
Sign in with email — wallet is optional. You only need a Polymarket-compatible wallet if you want to trade. Sharp signals work fine as read-only intelligence.
Ship-day pricing won't last.
Sharp — Rent from $29/mo. Own the code outright for $2,799.
Coming soonSign in
How to use Sharp
Two books. Pick the one you actually want.
Sharp solo flat-bet shows −$546 over 50resolved signals. Engine’s filter+sizing turns the same stream into +$673.
Sharp + Engine — trading system+$673
Let Engine size and exit for you.
Engine sizes positions via Half-Kelly against your bankroll, exits losing positions early, and compounds wins. Same signals, different PnL profile: +$673 net over 50 closed trades on the same window.
Sharp solo is a research tool. Sharp + Engine is a trading system. Pick what you actually want before you subscribe.
Past performance does not predict future results. Engine’s number is computed from paper-trade fills against the Polymarket orderbook at signal time — real fills can differ by slippage, latency, and liquidity. Numbers refresh hourly.